Where things stand
On September 16 the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, citing inflation that “remains elevated.” Banks lifted the prime rate to 7.00% the next day. Before that, the Committee had held rates steady at five straight meetings from January through July 2026.
The Committee meets again on October 27–28. The statement is released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on October 28, followed by the Chair’s press conference. Unlike September, this meeting does not include a new Summary of Economic Projections; the next set of projections comes in December.
What the September minutes signaled
The minutes of the September meeting were released on October 7. According to published summaries, most officials judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by the end of the year, and inflation measured by the PCE price index was running at 3.8% in August, well above the Fed’s 2% goal. That language points to a Committee that sees rates as not yet restrictive enough, but it does not commit to a move at any particular meeting.
We don’t forecast rates. We report what the Fed has said and what each outcome would mean for borrowers. Track every decision in our Fed rate tracker.
Two scenarios and what they mean for you
If the Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%
Prime would stay at 7.00%, and variable rates on cards and home equity lines would stay where they are after September’s increase. Watch the statement wording: if it keeps describing inflation as elevated, a December move stays on the table.
If the Fed raises another quarter point
The range would move to 4.00%–4.25%, and by convention prime would rise to about 7.25%. Most variable-rate cards would follow within a billing cycle or two. On a $5,000 card balance, a quarter-point increase adds roughly $12.50 a year in interest. Existing fixed-rate personal loans would not change.
| Outcome on Oct 28 | Fed funds range | Prime (by convention) | Variable card APRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 3.75%–4.00% | 7.00% | No change |
| +0.25 point | 4.00%–4.25% | About 7.25% | Up about 0.25 point |
How a Fed decision reaches your wallet
The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. You never pay it directly, but it sets the floor for many other rates. The fastest link is the prime rate, which banks typically set 3 points above the top of the Fed’s range. Most credit cards and home equity lines are priced as prime plus a margin, so they move within weeks of a decision.
Fixed-rate loans work differently. Your rate is locked when you sign, so a Fed move doesn’t change an existing personal loan, auto loan or fixed mortgage. Lenders do reprice new offers over time, based on their funding costs, competition and expected losses. That’s why the Fed’s personal loan average moved only from 11.86% in May to 11.90% in August, while card rates follow prime more closely.
A quick look back
The Fed cut rates by a combined 1 percentage point in late 2024 and by another 0.75 point in late 2025, then paused for five meetings in 2026. September’s quarter-point increase reversed part of the most recent cuts. Our Fed rate tracker lists every decision with links to the official statements.
What to watch on decision day
- The vote. September was unanimous. Dissents would signal how divided officials are about the next step.
- The inflation sentence. Any softening of “remains elevated” would be notable.
- The press conference. The Chair’s answers about December often move expectations more than the statement itself.
Key dates for borrowers
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | FOMC decision | Sets the direction for prime and variable rates |
| Nov 6 | Fed G.19 consumer credit release | New personal loan and card rate data for the quarter |
| Nov 18 | Minutes of the October meeting | Detail on officials’ views |
| Dec 8–9 | FOMC meeting with new projections | Final decision of 2026 |
What you can do before Oct 28
- Pay down variable-rate balances, which get more expensive if rates rise again.
- If you plan to borrow, compare fixed-rate offers now. A fixed rate stays the same regardless of the Fed. Compare offers for $200–$5,000.
- Check today’s averages on our personal loan rates page so you can judge an offer.
Frequently asked questions
When will the Fed announce its October decision?
At 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, after the October 27–28 meeting.
Will a hike change my personal loan payment?
Not if your loan has a fixed rate. Only variable-rate debt, such as most credit cards and HELOCs, changes with the Fed.
Is the October meeting a projections meeting?
No. The Summary of Economic Projections is published at the March, June, September and December meetings.
This article is general information, not financial advice. Rates and rules change; check the linked sources for the latest figures.